Well, that rather depends from whose perspective you’re looking at it and in the case of the Chancellor, she’s eyeing up the two in the bush like a drooling hyena. Of course I don't mean real birds but tax thresholds.
Following this morning’s surprise U turn on the proposed income tax hike, desperate revenue raising measures are now needed to a) fill the mythical black hole and b) calm the stock markets.
There may have been a collective sigh of relief at the prospect of no direct income tax increase. Hand on heart, the Government can say it hasn’t broken its election manifesto pledges but what we can’t see are the fingers crossed behind their backs. There’s still time to break the pledge big time by effecting a pincer movement on tax in the form of indirect stealth increases.
On the one hand, pushing out the freeze on income tax thresholds for another few years will drag a lot of fish into the fiscal tax net including pensioners who rely solely on the state pension for their income. Whilst not directly increasing income tax rates, it is still a tax increase nonetheless for those who previously obtained money for nothing ie no or low productivity in the workplace.
Be careful what you wish for as the second scenario of lowering the income tax threshold will hurt more than paying an extra 2p in the pound. Let me elaborate further with a couple of examples:
Let’s say we have someone who earns a gross annual salary of £20,000. If the threshold for 20% income tax remains the same at £12,570 then tax would only be paid on the difference as follows:
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| Current tax rate and tax threshold |
You would only pay tax on £7,430 (total income minus threshold amount) which at a rate of 20% is approx. £1,486 per annum
Now let’s look at what happens to your tax bill if the income tax rate is increased by 2p from 20% to 22% but the threshold remains frozen at £12,570:
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| Tax up but threshold unchanged |
With an increased tax rate, this person is now paying £149 more in income tax than if the rate had remained at 20%.
However, rewind the clock to the first example. The Treasury has decided to lower the income tax threshold by £1,000 to £11,570 leaving the income tax rate unchanged at 20%. What happens now?
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| Tax rate unchanged but threshold lowered |
As you can see, lowering the threshold has increased the amount of tax payable because the chunk of money on which tax is calculated is larger. This person is now paying £200 more in income tax than if the rates or thresholds had stayed unchanged. The difference between paying 2p more in tax or having a lower threshold means you’ll be £51 worse off.
So, if I ask the same question again – which would be better, having a slight increase in the rate of taxation or having a lower income tax threshold then what’s your answer going to be?
My third scenario also means that if the threshold were reduced by £1,000 from next April, then the Treasury would benefit earlier from the effects of fiscal drag on the recent increase to the state pension as at £12,548 this would now push ALL retirees firmly into tax territory in 2026. As well as pushing all pensioners into the tax net, any low paid or part time workers could also be swept along by the tax tide making it pointless to work at all.
Having got a taste for it, there would be nothing to stop future Chancellors lowering the personal tax threshold figure again and again until it eventually disappears in a puff of smoke. Perhaps this is their heinous master plan after all.
Even a small tweaking of the tax threshold may have a larger negative impact on your income than raising the basic rate of taxation so before you break out the champagne and canapes then I say again be very careful what you wish for. We may have escaped the income tax frying pan only to find an inferno beneath it!
Even a small tweaking of the tax threshold may have a larger negative impact on your income than raising the basic rate of taxation so before you break out the champagne and canapes then I say again be very careful what you wish for. We may have escaped the income tax frying pan only to find an inferno beneath it!



